Thursday, 14 December 2017

Total SA’s foray into east Africa hits rough winds

First flare up test at Hoima

The French oil Major, Total S.A’s foray into east Africa’s oil exploration sector has run into headwinds. The foray itself brought tumult in the sector and the region. Farmed into Hoima Oil fields by Tullow Oil, Total SA soon began manouevres to elbow out its hosts and take full control of the 1.7 billion barrel fields.
 Tullow oil was the first oil explorer to find oil in Uganda in 2006. It farmed the oil Majors Total SA and the China National Off-shore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for 33 per cent stake in Hoima Oil fields in Uganda.  Meanwhile Tullow Oil together with its Canadian partner Africa Oil had discovered oil in Kenya’s Lokichar Basin.
So Tullow planned to export its crude through the proposed Lamu Port in Kenya. For this both governments in Uganda and Kenya agreed to set up a special purposes vehicle to build an oil Pipeline through Kenya.
 But then Total, secretly contracted a US company, Gulf Interstate, to do a feasibility on the Uganda-Kenya route which they found unfeasible, recommending the Pipeline be built through Tanzania’s to the Port of Tanga.  Uganda bought the idea and re-routed her planned oil pipeline.
This angered Tullow who off-loaded 22% of its 33.3 per cent stake to Total SA in a US$900 million deal. Tullow moved to Kenya.
 It also poisoned diplomatic relations between Kenya and Tanzania that are still chill. Now Total S.A appears set for her own tumult.
First, it appears that Total, buoyed by her success in elbowing Tullow out of Hoima Fields also began to bully CNOOC out of the fields too. CNOOC is not about to be bullied to sell her stake for she represents wider Chinese interests than just oil.
 She also represents the interests of Chinese construction companies who were eyeing the deal to construct the Pipeline. So she resisted all manouevres by Total SA to control the business.
 Either by coincidence, or at China’s behest, some skeletons began coming out of Total SA’s cupboard. It emerged that despite the seemingly cordial relations with Tanzania, there were under currents. President Magufuli of Tanzania developed misgivings about Total, which had disagreed with his technocrats on parts of the deal. He advised his friend President Museveni to go slow on Total.
 It also emerged that, Gulf Interstate, the firm that carried the feasibility that badmouthed the Kenya route, may not have been competent in that line after all. Museveni had based his decision to re-route the oil Pipeline south on this feasibility study.
The re-route that Cost Kenya the Pipeline
 Further, Equatorial Guinea has cautioned President Museveni to be weary of Total.  The firm had defrauded Equatorial Guinea of Euros 73 million worth of crude exports between 2010 and 2012. And E.Guinea is demanding a refund. 
Tullow, according to Uganda’s the independent Magazine, sold its stake due to frustration by the Uganda government over the Crude oil pipeline route. Tullow favored the Lamu Port, because of her interests in Kenya’s Lokichar Oilfields in Kenya. The pipeline from Hoima to Lamu through Lokichar would have enabled Tullow to export the Kenyan oil on the same Pipeline.
 Now, the disagreement is said to be so intense that the partnership could collapse if not resolved, further delaying Uganda’s entry into the oil exporters club. This is why the Uganda government has been roped into the dispute. Both Total SA and CNOOC are lobbying Uganda President to get advantage over the other but the Chinese are said to be gaining the upper hand.
In November, both sides visited the Uganda President but the Total delegation sources say, left “unhappy”. The Chinese, led by the Ambassador in Uganda, and the CNOOC vice-President, had met the President earlier and are said to have raised concerns about Total.
To the east in Kenya, where Total SA acquired 25 percent through a buy-out of Maersk Oil from the firm’s parent company, A.P. Moller-Maersk, things do not look rosy either.  
The National Oil Corporation, the industry regulator in Kenya, plans to float shares in both NSE and LSE in 2019 in an IPO to raise US$1 billion for 33 per cent stake buy-in in Lokichar Oilfields ahead of Production.
Lokichar, boasts of 750 million barrels but new wells are being discovered. The basin which extends to Ethiopia is thought to hold 23 billion barrels of the black gold.
The government’s entry into the oil sector will whittle down the stakes of the other partners. The partners in Lokichar are Tullow 50%, Africa Oil 25% and Total SA 25%. The presence of the government will whittle down Total SA’s potential influence, reducing it to a spectator. The firm had expressed its desire to lobby Kenya to allow Kenya’s crude to be exported south through the Tanga Port in Tanzania.
Such a move would have killed the US$2.1 billion Lokichar- Lamu Oil Pipeline. It would also have killed the proposed 120,000 barrels a day oil refinery in Lamu. With the entry of the Kenya government into the industry, such a dream is effectively killed.
Assuming each partner cedes 11 percent stake, then Kenyans will be the second largest stake holder after Tullow which will control 39 per cent, Kenyans 33 per cent, Africa Oil 14% and Total 14 %.
Since oil price is recovering in the international market, frontier sources such as east Africa will become the ground for intense battles among the oil Majors. Total SA’s stated goal is to be the first on the ground.
However, others-including the Chinese -are also seeking to increase their stock of crude oil, and this means bare knuckled battles. According to Uganda’s The Independent Magazine, the Chinese appear set to stay put. And the government, it says, appears lukewarm towards Total S.A.
This places the oil major between a rock and a hard place. Should it continue with its bullying ways, governments could step in to scuttle its schemes.  Uganda, sources indicate, has not entirely abandoned its plans to ship oil through Kenya nor did Tullow dump all its stake on Total’s hands.
Uganda is the cradle of Total SA’s presence in east Africa. Should it slip through its hands, even the Pipeline through Tanzania will be in jeopardy. 

It remains to be seen how Total S.A wades through the waters it muddied.

Sunday, 3 December 2017

Kenya Gearing for robust growth in 2018


Kenya is revving for faster growth in the coming year, all things remaining the same, we can report. The country, whose growth is among the fastest in the continent, is expected to register slow growth in 2017 compared to 2016.  Last year, national wealth grew by a robust 5.8 per cent but is expected to slow down to 5.0 per cent or below.
However, all fundamentals for a fast turnaround are in place: the short- rains have been adequate and well distributed, inflation has turned south and will continue to do so as food supply increases, oil prices still look low and the political climate is cooling off albeit with pockets of noise.
The short run headwinds namely; the uncertainties arising from a prolonged electioneering is well behind us, the economic tremor caused by the invalidation of the presidential vote on September 1st is also behind us. The tide is turning in favour of economic prosperity.
 Prolonged drought since the second half of 2016 coupled with poor long rains were the draw back to wealth creation this year, says the Second-Quarter GDP report published by the national Bureau of statistics
There were shortages of all agricultural products including Maize, Sugar cane, coffee and milk leading to low activity in the agro-processing sector. Shortages means that someone is not producing and therefore making money and employing others.
Completion of some mega infrastructure projects also slowed down activity in some sectors. Both slow-downs led to lay-offs which increased unemployment in the country. However, the resurgence of activity in mega- infrastructure projects including the Thwake Dam, the Lamu- Isiolo highway and the second runway at the JKIA are expected to boost cement consumption and activity in the construction sector.  
These shortage resulted in inflationary pressures that saw overall inflation rise to 8.04 in August before declining to 4.73 in November 2017.
The shilling, which was suffering the ravages of political uncertainty has appreciated to 102.95/103.10 on December 1st from Shs103.75/103.90 in November 14th when the Supreme Court upheld President Kenyatta’s re-election.  It is expected to appreciate further as political risk retreats and investors troop back to the local financial market.
The decline political risk, coupled with increased output in the agricultural sector and the 50 % reduction in electricity tariffs for the manufacturing sector, during the night, has set the stage for robust growth next year as investors dust their shelved investment plans.
There is one potential drawback though, Oil prices are turning north sending a clear signal of a raid into our pockets in the new-year. A barrel of crude has hit $64 per barrel which translates into higher pump prices.
 However, the good rains are expected to dampen the pressure as the Hydro-dams levels rise, increasing the amount of cheap-green- energy in the market. The

Experts see a 5.9-6.0 growth rate next year. They see a higher rate in 2019 other being the same.

Thursday, 23 November 2017

Back to abnormal. Raila is done!

Supreme Court: Sealed RAO's career

The Supreme Court of Kenya on Monday this week sealed Raila Odinga’s political fate. By upholding Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election on October 26th, it  paved the way for Kenya to go back to abnormal because Raila is done!

Go back to abnormal? To many Kenyans normal is going back to their normal routine. That’s true. But one “normal” will be missing- regular disruptions by Raila Odinga and his surrogates. Odingaism is Kaput!
 The old man, a very good mobilizer but a poor strategist brought this on himself.  He chose the wrong path to State House and has never learnt from his previous failures, probably because he believes his own lies. He created an impression of a national outlook in his party by surrounding himself with communities that do not have the numbers to take him to state house, unless he is running alone! That was a sure way to keep him in the opposition benches.
 Politics is about numbers and persuasion. He is very poor in both. He was a poor student at school both in Kenya and East Germany, where he took to so long to understand basic concepts. That poor scholarly aptitude is echoed in the political school where he has failed to grasp a basic truth about numbers and politics.
He failed completely to penetrate the vote-rich central Rift valley and Mount Kenya region due to his brinkmanship- he believes in bullying, intimidation, disruption and violence which put-off many Kenyans, including his late father, Jaramogi Odinga Oginga. This was noted as a major weakness by his Marxism instructors in East Germany who found him disorganized, disruptive and lawless-never kept time for instance, says an EU council intelligence. Even to date he has few friends in Kenya.
 He is unruly and does not belief in due process. This character almost brought the Supreme Court of Kenya, which invalidated Uhuru’s win in August 8th, into disrepute.  Instead of obeying the Court’s orders, by going to campaign, he resorted to disruptive tactics- making demands for personnel changes at the IEBC and a plethora of other demands unrelated to the elections.  
When his will hit a stone all, he pretended to withdraw from the election and when that failed, he called for the boycott of the elections. Despite this call and the violent blockade of voters in his Luo Nyanza, the election still went ahead and he lost by seven million votes.
Jimmi wanjigi: Investment gone to waste?
This author predicted after the nullification of Uhuru’s win in September that Raila was handed a rope to hang himself by the Supreme Court. The same court drove the final nail in his political career’s coffin On Monday. “Now he can kick as much as he pleases,” to quote Shaka the Zulu king of the 17th Century.
And now his options are limited. One way that seems open to him, is open defiance and probably getting sworn in as President. This is high treason which carries a mandatory death sentence.  There is also the international Criminal Court, which is monitoring his activities and would surely relish a date with him. Will he take that route? Only time will tell.
The entry of ICC into the picture is a pointer to his declining popularity in the West. His recent trips to the US and Britain were flops. He has painted himself into a corner.
But for the time being, he and his surrogates have no option but to rant and yell-shouting intimidating slogans whose viability is next to Zero. Only one result is possible- failure.
 The journey to Canaan is over. It’s back to the wilderness for him and his surrogates, a failure that will spawn a string of destitute people, who hanged on his coat labels.
Topping the casualty list is businessman, Jimmi Wanjigi, who invested billions of shillings funding Raila and NASA in an attempt to bring Uhuru down. Instead, he could end up going down the drain as the billions he blew up supporting Raila could turn out to be a complete waste.
 He supported NASA on the understanding that if the party wins, he shall get almost all mega infrastructure and security contracts amounting to Kshs 2.27 trillion. From these he hoped to make Ksh 400 billion in profits. This made investing tens of billions a worthy investment. Chances are he is facing another five years of financial drought which spells doom for the tenderprenuer.
The self- proclaimed “Father of political patronage” like all other party supporters are living in denial. They still brag that they shall install Raila as president. That remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain, Uhuru will ensure that Wanjigi is cut to size. He has already crippled his two major projects, the SGR and the second terminal at JKIA. There is no reason to belief any other projects will not be crippled in future- if he ever gets them that is.
With Wanjigi trimmed, the protest industry emerges as the next potential destitute. Without Wanjigi bankrolling it, It is dead. Some NGOs may try to fit in his ugly shoes, but they are also equally vulnerable. The end for street protest over every little matter is nigh, hence our abnormal future.
Raila: Made a disastrous blunder
Another destitute lot are the country parliaments that have rushed to pass the “People assembly” law. They could be disbanded and their counties placed under the national government clipping Raila’s wings further. Without MCAs to mobilize goons, he is a sitting duck.
 There is talk of sabotage, that is, all NASA MPs and Senators will resign en-mass citing dissatisfaction with the president. This is a probable move, but a disastrous one, just like the People’s assembly. It remains to be seen how many MPs would risk their salaries now to go to a new election. There is serious doubt whether more than 100 MPs would resign. And even if they did, 100 out of a 290 member house is a minority that can be filled through by-elections.
This is one idea that is appealing but impracticable. Just like the boycott idea, this will add to a string of failures in the past. These include: Okoa Kenya; the journey to Canaan; boycotting certain companies and products; labour unrest in critical sectors of the public service such as Doctors, Nurses, teachers, lecturers; boycott of elections and finally NRM. Raila was out foxed at every turn and now he appears headed for the oblivion.
He has two choices in his journey to oblivion: Either exit the stage quietly and peacefully or take the path to self-destruction- violence and defiance. Either way, the destination is oblivion! What is not clear is how soon the journey will end.




Friday, 17 November 2017

ODM leads the Corruption Tag-Team in Kenya

John Mbadi :A thief investigating himself?
 Contrary to public pronouncements, Raila Odinga’s party, ODM is in the thick of the plunder of Kenya.A Lengthy investigation by this publication has established that there is a tag-team of corruption in Kenya.
 The team comprises of wealthy businessmen, politicians, the media and some so-called activists.
This is how it works: an official frustrates a businessman’s scheme to plunder Kenya; the miffed businessman concocts some scandal targeting the official in question, he hands the scandal to a an ODM politician or a miffed one too; the politician hands it to a friendly reporter who splashes the story, other politicians and activists pick up the cue and the chorus of condemnation begins.
Since the businessmen tag along politicians in the schemes to plunder Kenya, the politician is also miffed because he also lost in the same deal.
Waiguru: Hounded out by the
 Corruption Tag- team
The team, currently starring Jimmi Wanjigi, Raila Odinga and ODM, is going through a lean season, frustrated by the Uhuruto administration and is fighting back in all fronts.
In fact, the tag-team seems deadset on regime change. The reason; another five years of Kenyatta administration will cripple them financially.  This is the last one battle for their survival.
This team has in the past spun “scandals’ that have destroyed careers and brought the Kenyatta administration into disrepute, investigation by this publication have established.  However, our investigation has established, all “scandals” were hot air.
Our review of several allegations of mega corruption in Kenya such as the (in) famous Euro Bond saga, the SGR saga in Kenya and Uganda found them to be mere malicious tiffs by corrupt businessmen, in Kenya, called “tenderprenuers.”
“Tenderprenuers” are characters who specialize in winning government mega tenders, then sale them to the real providers for a fee. They themselves never provide a thing. In some instances, they originate the projects and sale them to corrupt government officials.
A pattern emerged from our tracking of the scandals: One, they all originate with ODM officials; the same officials never take the reports to the investigative agencies; that ODM dominated parliamentary committees are the first off the blocks to investigate such scandals; that the investigative agencies always find no evidence to back the allegations; that some politicians in these committees are interested parties since they also have their fingers in the cookie jar.
It is common Knowledge that investigation by Parliamentary committees attract massive publicity but carry no weight in prosecution of the alleged scams. Their job is merely to cover-up the real intention of the scam-to demonize and get uncooperative officials removed from office.
The cases hardly ever find their way into investigative and prosecution agencies. And where they do, they are almost always thrown out. Consequently, none of the alleged cases are ever prosecuted due to lack of evidence. The alleged culprits are tried and prosecuted in the press, public meetings and street demonstrations funded by the tenderprenuers.
In all cases, the “whistle blowers” who are in most cases, the culprits, avoid investigative bodies like the plague. In one such case, CORD politicians in Kenya mobilized their members to demonstrate when it became clear that their leader, Raila Odinga, was to be arrested for failing to honor summons by an investigative agency over the Eurobond saga.
In some instances, politicians, worried that their cover could be blown, even try to direct the investigations -telling investigators what to investigate, who to investigate and where to stop.
The tales are spun to either get unwanted people out of the way or just to embarrass the government.  A case in point is the alleged NYS plunder which cost the then Minister for Devolution and planning, Anne Waiguru, her job. As it turned out, Waiguru may have stood in the way of a tenderprenuer who was eyeing a Kshs16 billion security tender at NYS among other targeted projects.
The Isaack Hassan led IEBC was destroyed in a similar manner,when it refused to axe OT Morpho for Smartmatic to supply voter identification Kits. The company is owned by Lord Mark –Mahlom Brown a friend of Raila Odinga.   Ezra Chiloba, the new CEO also rejected the Smartmatic bid and is also a target of the tag-team.
Embankments(Soil Refill) and bridges account 30% of costs
This is the same reason the same politicians are calling for the boycott of Safaricom. The firm won a Kshs 14 billion contract to install surveillance cameras in Nairobi and Mombasa. A local tenderprenuer considers security contracts in Kenya his forte. It is through such tenders that he, together with others, looted billions of shillings of tax payer money.
 By 2004, such crooks had looted a total of US$700 million (Kshs56 billion in the then exchange rates), says a diplomatic cable seen by this publication. One reputedly pocketed US$5 million (Kshs 400 million in the current exchange rate then).
In their hurry to scandalize a project, the whistle blowers overlook critical details, resulting in a half-baked stories of criminal activity. This was the case in Eurobond saga, in which an alleged Kshs100 billion was stolen. Electronic Funds transfer documents show that the money was transferred to the Central Bank of Kenya’s account at the Federal Reserve, in New York. And that the Central bank, which is the banker to the government, paid the equivalent in Shillings to the consolidated account.
The scandal was just hot hair whose purpose was to embarrass the government by miffed tenderprenuers. There is no evidence any money was ever stolen.
 Deception was common in the on the standard gauge Railway “scandal.” Both MPs and journalists ignored mundane design parameters such as design capacity and design standards. To them SGR is SGR. That is why they were quick to use Ethiopia as role model because it had completed the first electric Standard Gauge Railway in Africa from Addis Ababa to Djibouti, a distance of 755 Kilometres at a cost of $3.4 billion.
This compares adversely with the $3.2 billion that the 600 Kilometre Mombasa-Nairobi section cost. The press was awash with hogwash. Some suggesting that huge chunks of money were stolen, a figure of Kshs 100billion was bandied around. But evidence has emerged of tenderprenuers, who lost the bid to construct the Railway line as a PPP project, conceiving and funding the “scandal.”
The Mombasa Super bridge of the SGR
 A comparison of the detailed designs tells a different story. The Kenyan Railway is class one Chinese standard rail line whose gradient was 1.2 percent. That meant construction of a total of 79 bridges totaling 35 kilometres. Some of the bridges are kilometres long.
Engineers say that bridges contribute 30 per cent of total cost of building a Railway line. That means where bridges and embankments are fewer, the cost is lower. That is the case with the Ethiopian SGR which has only level -crossings and only one 150 meter- long bridge.
A report seen by this publication suggests that the Nairobi- Kisumu – Malaba section of the SGR will cost more per kilometer due to the terrain in the Rift valley. It will require bridges and tunnels to ensure that the locomotives hauling 800 meter- long double –stacked wagons or 4,000 tons maintain a steady 80 KPH throughout the journey.
One more detail, both the Tanzanian and Ethiopian lines, are upgrades of the old Railway line apart from being of an inferior quality compared to Northern corridor. The Northern Corridor SGR is a Greenfield project.



Monday, 6 November 2017

Boycott? It’s Jimmi Wanjigi’s Vendetta!


The Puppet megalomaniac
  The calls by NASA/NRM to boycott certain companies and their products is Jimmi Wanjigi’s revenge attack, we can report.  Raila Odinga is just the puppet, doing his master’s will while NASA members are pawns in game of greed for wealth and power. Raila shall only gain the droppings from their high table, warn international intelligence sources.
Jimmi has sworn to bring  Kenyatta  down because he put Jubilee in office and Jubilee betrayed him by blocking his plundering ways.  In a tweet on his twitter handle he says: “Jubilee was my brainchild, laid out the blueprint and  filled it with the occupants all in my basement. And bring it down I will! Watch my pace!”
Wanjigi, who made his wealth through shady deals during the Kibaki regime, cobbled together Jubilee Alliance from URP and TNA led by William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, respectively in 2012, ahead of that year’s election. He had hoped that they would look the other side as he plundered Kenya.
It was a miscalculation for as soon as they assumed office, they abandoned him and blocked his plundering schemes. Among the schemes was the US$9 billion Standard Gauge Railway and the US$600 million Greenfield passenger terminal at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi.
JW: Instability Kingpin
The battle it seems is, not just economic sabotage and destruction of target companies, but also a strong arm way of gaining free stake in both the target companies and also their competitors.  Destroying opponents is Raila Odinga’s stock-in-trade.
And destroying Kenya for his selfish gains is no big deal, warns the EU council for foreign relations. “He will not blink if Kenya goes over the cliff, if that is the price to be paid for a place for him in the government,” it concludes.  
He destroyed the IEBC commission led by Isaack Hassan because they stood in his way of earning Kick- backs from IEBC related businesses.  It is for the same reason that he led an onslaught against the current IEBC, Chief Executive, Ezra Chiloba.
 Safaricom, sources say is targeted because it also did not play ball with Raila’s friends, smartmatic international, which had bid to Supply IEBC with the Voter identification kits. Smartmatic international, in this bid tried to rope in Safaricom in order to strengthen its case. Safaricom turned down the offer and that is why it is a target of Raila’s ire. Smartmatic international is owned by Raila’s friend, Mark Mahlon- Brown, a British member of the House of Lords and a former UNDP boss.
The destruction Safaricom, it is hoped, will pave way for the growth of Airtel which will be arm twisted to offer them a stake. Bidco Africa is also being bullied for the same reasons. “Don’t be surprised to find Raila or Jimmi and their surrogates owning a stake in the companies in future,” said a Nairobi based business analysts.  The only companies that are being bullied for vendetta reasons are Brookside and Equity Bank, he added.  
Jimmi Wanjigi, who in his twitter page introduces himself as the Godfather of Political patronage, strong -armed Raila into signing several agreements that made him the de facto king pin in a Raila government, says a review by the British Foreign and Commonwealth affairs office.  In return JW, as they refer to him, funded his entire Presidential campaign for Kshs 10 billion.
In the agreement, NASA, the coalition of tribal kingpins that he cobbled together must win the elections and if they fail, force a grand coalition by all means. NASA lost the August 8th election. He petitioned and won the petition when the Supreme Court annulled Kenyatta’s election.
 Raila’s hope was Kenyatta would reject the Supreme Court ruling leading to an explosion of violence country wide. That never happened thus scuttling his scheme.  He did not participate in the fresh elections ordered by the Supreme Court. Instead, he engaged in a series of suicidal activities culminating in his withdrawal from the election hopping to scuttle the process. That too failed.
Mark Brown: Another puppeteer
JImmi in his tweets seems to acknowledge that Kenyatta is a strategist, citing the lack of quorum at the Supreme Court on Oct25th, which scuttled their   attempts to derail the elections slated for the next day. He also cites the ban of Kura yangu Sauti Yangu and “We the people” NGOs as a good strategy.
The current administration is the greatest stumbling block to this scheme hence the need to replace it. The plotters identified Raila Odinga as their man, nay “Kijana ya Mkono,” their puppet.
Jimmi Wanjigi, has been plotting to overthrow President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government since 2013 as it frustrated his plans to plunder Kenya.
The target resources include; oil in the Lokichar basin, the bullet factory at Eldoret, a string of Infrastructure projects and hardware supplies to the Security forces in Kenya. These conduits are expected to earn the Mandarins anything up to Kshs 3.0 trillion in five years!
A British Foreign and Commonwealth Office report notes that Wanjigi, apart from eyeing government projects, is also gunning to chase out of Kenya, Tullow oil and its partner, from Lokichar basin. The British report says that Wanjigi was plotting to bring in Asian explorers for a stake in the basin estimated to hold 23 billion barrels of Crude oil. It also suggests that he is planning to set up a militia to Keep NASA in check should they grown horns.
The Kenyatta administration is the stumbling block to all these goals hence the need to replace it. So A school of thought is emerging that Uhuru should play hardball with Raila after swearing- in.
It is not clear that Uhuru will opt for the no holds-barred approach. Instead, he could lay a trap for Raila and lead him into it. Raila and some of his officials are already on the ICC radar. Uhuru could allow, and even egg Raila into the trap.

Wanjigi, in his tweets seems to recognize this trap. How he manouevres through this trap and still get his way remains to be seen.

Friday, 27 October 2017

Orphans of the aborted Journey to Canaan

RAO: Joshua leading flock to the wilderness
The journey to Canaan has aborted! The river Jordan did not stop its waters and Joshua has aborted the trip and is leading his flock back to the wilderness. The aborted journey has left in its wake Orphans, shattered dreams, careers in jeopardy, anger and a potential scattering of the flock. That is perhaps how events of October 25th, 2017 can be described.

  The winds that failed to stop the river Jordan was a rebellion by the Supreme Court of Kenya judges who refused to hear an application suspending yesterday’s election.  That rebellion saved Kenya from an artificial crisis created by the Court and the “Lawfare’’ brigade.  That Uhuru will then president in the next five years is fait accompli.

 The brigade, itself desperate for a place in the government, is determined to do everything to achieve its goal. It must, for NASA signed itself into a trap.  It has a contract with Jimmi Wanjigi, who funded its Presidential bid for a whopping Kshs 10 billion. The contract requires NASA “to win the election by all means or force a grand coalition.” Failure to do this, the NASA brigade “will individually and collectively be required to pay back the ten billion plus a fifty billion interest.”

This has the party desperate for Kshs 60 billion is no chicken feed.  Consequently, when the route through Courts hit a Cul de sac, an alternative had to be sought quicklySome confusion called resistance Movement was born. Well not really unexpected, the birth of the rebel movement.
Now that the journey has aborted, a lot of people have a bitter taste in their mouths.  Chief among them is Raila Amolo Odinga, whose dream to occupy Statehouse appears shattered. 

The day, October 25th, 2017, will enter the annals of Kenya’s history as a watershed when dreams and aspirations were cut short.  Drama unfolded at the Courts culminating in the collapse of NASA dream. There was a rebellion at the Supreme Court, scuttling what was perhaps the last ditch effort to scuttle the elections.
So Raila and his surrogates are the first casualties. And given that he is the first orphan, the birth of the rebel movement, could be just a smokescreen for his fear of prosecution for treason.  The National Resistance Movement, is unlikely to resonate with Kenyans, apart from his Luo Nyanza.  It could turn out to be a major blunder on his part. By destroying NASA, a legally recognized political conglomeration to replace it with NRM, he has jumped from the legal to the illegal inviting the use of force to end it.
JW: Lost bet. Kes 10bn down the drain


Second, it leaves him wide open to rebellion by his other principals since NRM was not part of the NASA deal. It turns the other principals, namely; Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetangula into principal rebels. Their supporters also become rebels. Whether they approved of the shift from a political outfit to a militant one, remains to be seen. One thing is certain though, if the new outfit takes root, the supporters will decamp once the ramifications become clear. If that comes to pass, Raila will be isolated and an easy target for the government. He is the first and major casualty of his foolishness.
 The collapse of the journey to Canaan has also left a string of orphans, chief among them, Jimmi Wanjigi. He funded the NASA campaign hoping to buy the position of emperor and tenderprenuer per excellence, where he would make Kshs 1 trillion in five years through plunder of Kenya. From this, Wanjigi was to pocket Kshs 400 billion and share the balance with Raila Kshs240 billion, Kalonzo shs 120 billion, Weta and Mudavadi were to take home Shs 30 billion a piece by the end of the looting term.. That dream has now evaporated making Raila damaged goods to him. He will bid his time and shop around for another compliant politician.
The rebellion at the Supreme Court has Chief Justice Maraga and ‘his majority bench,” definitely in a fix. Their stay at the top of the Judiciary department is definitely shaky. Their removal from the apex court is certain. So they are the second orphan of the aborted judiciary aided coup. The question is if they shall face prosecution for treason.  If sufficient evidence is adduced that they willfully overturned the will of Kenyans, on September 1st, then, they may just face such trial. Theirs will be an ignominious exit from a stage that had dressed them with accolades. 
Other orphans include a number of high court Judges and a number of NGOs starting led by AFRICOG  and its surrogates, which are funded by George Soros, the billionaire  alleged to be a regime change artist. The backlash will destroy a string of careers in the Judiciary, politics and the NGO world.
for the victims." This is the wrong narrative- and the analysts-mainly CORD supporters, just like the ODM supporters of 2010, are again prevaricating. The issue is simple: Now that there is no evidence linking Uhuru with the violence, who committed the crime? Did it happen of itself or did somebody organise, plan, finance and execute the violence? Who was that? Where did the violence begin? How come we don't hear of violence in Kisumu, Kibera, Eldoret, Mathare and other places, bur only violence in Naivasha and Nakuru?The Supreme Court Judges led by Maraga must be a deeply distressed lot: A ruling that won them accolades World-wide could turn out to be their waterloo, opening them to opprobrium instead. They have already been branded the Wakora four.
The legality of the ruling is beginning to unravel even before the ink that wrote the ruling dried. Its beneficiary, Raila Odinga, engaged in strange activities, going about demanding the blood of so many people, rather than campaigning.  When the blood was not spilled, he resorted to sabotage. Evidence is emerging of a deliberate effort to sabotage Kenyans’ will.  
SCOK Judges: Third tier of orphans
The evidence suggests an elaborate scheme to carry a Court assisted Coup in Kenya. The emerging evidence, analysts say, claimed the first casualty in Roselyn Akombe, an electoral commissioner, who fled the country slightly more than a week to the fresh presidential elections to day.
 Raila has always claimed he was rigged out since 2007. Events since, September 1 to yesterday expose him as a serial loser and liar.  Raila’s group has always worked to sabotage SCelection results by claiming rigging while they were the thieves. His metamorphosis into a rebel could as well be the final nail in the coffin of his political career.
This is because he turns himself into damaged goods in the eyes of his financiers who do not see any benefit of funding him. Raila is described a European intelligence network, as a person who cannot keep friends, disorganized and illiterate, useful only in brinkmanship.

 And Uhuru Kenyatta, the strategist appearing to have the upper hand, Raila is likely to become a white elephant to financiers. And financiers do not like to waste their Money on white elephants.
 There could be a last ditch effort to derail the results of Thursday’s election which President Kenyatta is expected to win. Perhaps a surrogate, NGO will rush to court to file a petition against swearing him. Maraga himself could also refuse to Swear-in the President by resigning at the last minute.
 It is unlikely such attempts will succeed. Hence the list of orphans will grow longer.

Kenyatta has executed himself as a calculating strategist. One who, while appearing indifferent to lies and insults, hands you a rope to hang yourself. That strategy virtually brought the International Criminal court to disrepute. He actually put it on trial.  Our SCOK is in the same uncomfortable position.

Saturday, 21 October 2017

President Jimmi Richard Wanjigi!


 President JW
 A Raila win in Kenya’s presidential elections will be a win for Jimmi Richard Wanjigi, this Publication can confidently report. Raila will only be a vassal President, with real power lying with JW as they refer to him.  They will have no power for he has bought them and supported their campaigns.
Jimmi has been plotting to bring down President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government since 2013 because the government has stood on his way to fleecing Kenyans. Wanjigi brought together the then competing opposition groups URP and TNA led by William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, respectively in 2012, ahead of that year’s election. 
His idea was to put in power a government that will look the other way as he plunders Kenya. Among his pet project that he hoped the new government will allow him to implement, was the US$ 9 billion Standard Gauge Railway and the US$ 600 million second runway and passenger terminal at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi.
The two projects, slipped through his fingers during the Uhuru Kenyatta administration. The SGR was taken over and implemented by the government while the   second terminal project was cancelled. That angered Wanjigi who decided to bring down the Kenyatta administration.
 He thus threw his weight and financial muscle behind Raila Odinga led CORD.  That is why, the Opposition made life difficult for the Kenyatta administration in the last five years with a string of alleged corruption deals in the government. The major one was the alleged theft of US$ 1 billion of the Eurobond saga and the NYS corrupt deals where fake witnesses were bought to allege huge theft. It ended up costing the then Cabinet secretary in charge of devolution, Anne Waiguru her job.

A document seen by this publications suggests that Wanjigi eyes the NYS among other agencies as his corruptions conduits. In the document, a power agreement between the NASA principals led by Raila and JW, the man will finance the entire NASA presidential campaign for a total of Kshs 10 billion.  The ten billion shilling campaign kitty was to be administered by Jimmi wanjigi, assisted by Raila Odinga, Ida Odinga, John Githongo and David Ndii.  
 Rao: President? Noway! Just a window dresser


 How did the five principals agree to an agreement that virtually strips them of all power reducing them to no more than decoration in the office? A British intelligence document say that Raila was strong armed into signing such a deal. Even the five principals, says the report, were forced to join NASA by their financier. Actually bought to sign the deal. Kalonzo, Wetangula, Mudavadi and Issac Rutto were each paid Kshs 300 million out- of- pocket expense for supporting a Raila Presidential bid on a NASA ticket.

 A British Foreign Office analysis of the security situation in Kenya, accuses Wanjigi of forcing the coalition together with the hope they shall pull a surprise win against Uhuru and Ruto. The document cautions about a “dangerous scheme hatched by dirty financial titans in Kenya and abroad.”
Back to the “power sharing and business agreement” between NASA and JW. In consideration of his financial support, Should NASA come to power, the agreement says, kwacha limited, a company owned by Wanjigis and his associates will be given seven major infrastructure projects worth kshs 2.270 trillion.
From these Wanjigi will make a Kshs 1 trillion profit which is 63 per cent of the entire investment in the projects, suggesting massive over-pricing. 
The money shall be shared with the principals as follows: Wanjigi will take kshs 400 billion. And of the remaining Kshs600 billion, Raila will take home Kshs 240 billion, Kalonzo Kshs 120 billion, Wetanguala and Mudavadi, Kshs 30 billion each. The balance, Kshs 120 billion, will be kept in a common pool administered by Jimmi Wanjigi, John Githongo and David Ndii.
In addition, Wanjigi, will nominate “Cabinet and Principal Secretaries for Treasury, Defence, Interior, Finance, Energy, Housing and Transport and Infrastructure;  Central Bank Governor, Head of Public Service Office, Inspector General of Police, Heads of National Intelligence Service and CID, Military Commanders, State House Comptroller, Attorney General, and ALL positions in the Public Service above Job Group V.”
 Kalonzo: Deputy window dresser

 Failure to capture the seat is a No option for NASA as the agreement demands “the 5 Principals must ensure it wins or by all means or force a grand coalition.” It also warns that should NASA come to power and fail to give the said contract to the Wanjigi, group, “the five Principals will individually and collectively, be liable to repay Wanjigi his Kshs 10 billion plus a Kshs 50 billion interest as agreed in a separate commercial contract.” 
This clause is perhaps to protect Wanjigi from incurring losses should the find Principals turn against him once they are in office. It is alleged that his Kshs 600 million went down the drain when UHuRuto turned against him once they got to power in 2013.
This document initially sounded preposterous when it fell into our hands and just ignored it since we could not verify it.  Although commissioned by a Nairobi advocate, Christine Adhiambo Opiyo, it had discrepancies that made us skeptical. However, after the British Foreign Office document surfaced, coupled with the Police raid into Wanjigi’s Muthaiga home Last Monday, it began to sound real.
The British Foreign office, explains that the British intelligence listened on Wanjigi’s conversations and established that he has entered into deal with the Serbian and Russian  associates to turn the Kenyan security forces especially KDF, into end users of military equipment from the eastern Europe. He has also schemed to privatize the Eldoret bullet factory with him as a major shareholder.
The idea is to produce eastern European ammo in the factory.  The British intelligence suspects that he shall also train a militia just “to keep the principals in check.”
 But the same militia will be used to attack British and Canadian interest in Lokichar Oil basin to force them out, warns the intelligence brief. Once forced out the suspected 23 billion barrels, oil fields will fall in the hands of Asian oil prospectors.

 This Brief sheds light into Wanjigi’s demand to be allowed to nominate for appointment, Cabinet Secretaries, permanent secretaries in Key ministries and also appoint Military and Police Chiefs. He wants compliant people who shall turn a blind eye to his plunder of Kenya.