Friday, 19 January 2018

Politicians in east Africa lead in scandalmongering


 Presidents:  Magufuli and Museveni:
 Friendship or deception?
 Politicians in East Africa, lead in scandal Mongering, we can report. 
They willfully distort facts to support fake corruption claims.  This is a malicious bid to sabotage government projects; bully “stubborn Officials” into submission and/or get contracts for their cronies or for themselves, we can report.
A survey of the most berated projects between 2015 and 2017 has established that the corruption claims were fake, driven by malice and selfish political goals.

In all cases surveyed, the allegations of corruption provided no concrete evidence and no one was ever prosecuted.  Instead, technical reviews established cases of malice and vendetta. There was no evidence of sincerity on the part of the critics either. The alleged cases were prosecuted in Press conferences and public rallies.

Four issues emerged in our survey to explain the fake reports: Protection of personal interests threatened by certain developments; tender brokerage, witch hunt, and Propaganda aimed at sabotaging the projects for political gain. In some cases, it was a combination of all four.

To achieve their nefarious goals, the scandal mongers alleged rip-off in the projects.  Among the leading scandal mongers in the region are President John Pombe Magufuli of Tanzania, Raila Amolo Odinga, the veteran oppositionist in Kenya and the Ugandan Parliament.

The three individuals and institutions publicly made claims of corrupt deals which turned out false. Among these is the cost of infrastructure projects such as the standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Kampala, highways, water dams and Oil Pipelines. All allegations were designed to sabotage the projects for political and malicious goals.

In 2016, Kenya’s opposition doyen claimed that half- of the US$2 billion raised in a Eurobond borrowing in 2014 was stolen. It was even alleged that the Federal Reserve, the Central bank of the US, helped hide the money. An investigation established that the money was transferred to the Central of Kenya’s account at the Fed.

Even the Controller and Auditor General undertook a mission to the Fed and is yet to publish his findings more than a year later. Investigations established Zero evidence of theft and the file closed. It was noted that the Eurobond, floated in the Irish stock exchange on June 14, 2014, hit the market on the same day that the Somalia based terror group, Al-shabaab, slaughtered over 100 people in Mpeketoni, in Lamu County, Kenya.

Analysts then suspected that the terror attack was designed to sabotage the Eurobond, by projecting Kenya as insecure. The market oversubscribed the bond by 400 percent.

In Uganda, a parliamentary Committee almost grounded the Standard Gauge Railway project by alleging massive rip off. The Parliamentary Committee on Infrastructure, headed by Dennis Sabiti, wrote a malicious report about Uganda’s SGR.  The committee alleged that the $2.3 billion tab for the  273 Km Malaba-Kampala section was a rip-off citing Ethiopia which had completed a 760Km line of just about the same amount.

The Tanzanian president, relying on this report, tried to talk the Ugandan President into re-routing the line from Mombasa to Dar-Es-Salaam through the Central Corridor. Magufuli willfully misled the Ugandan President, alleging that the Northern Corridor SGR was a rip-off as the Tanzanian line was cheaper.
This was in a bid to shore up his own line which is deemed unviable. The region to be served cannot generate sufficient freight tonnage to make the line viable. All countries, to be served, Including Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda can generate only 8.5 million tones in line whose capacity is 17 million tones a year. Uganda’s freight, on the other hand, is 10 million tones a year, a mouthwatering prospect for the DIKKM.
Raila Odinga: Leading scandal
Monger in kenya

Picking the cue from the President, the contractors building the Tanzanian line- Turkey's Yapi Merkezi Insaat VE Sanayi As and Portugal's Mota-Engil Engenharia- also tried to get Museveni to give them the deal.

 However, evidence emerged of vendetta on the part of Mr. Sabiti.  The Politicians had an ax to grind with the Works Permanent Secretary. The PS has refused to fund the Parliamentary Committee’s two- week benchmarking trip to Ethiopia, Kenya, and China, irking the Politicians who paid him back by bad mouthing the project.  

Further, it emerged, the Northern Corridor Railway is superior to Tanzanian and Ethiopian lines. It also emerged that, no matter who constructs the line, the cost cannot be lower given the Ugandan terrain.  The Tanzanian and Ethiopian lines were cheaper because apart from being inferior, they also were upgrades of an old line, were constructed on a relatively flat terrain and had fewer or no bridges. 

 Bridges form 30 percent of the cost of constructing a Railway line and Uganda will have 27 Km of bridges. Those findings discredited the Parliamentary report and President Museveni stuck to the Kenyan link.

The same malicious tongue lashing was evident in the 51 Kilometre Kampala-Entebbe expressway. The road was branded the most expensive highway in the world by Uganda’s Parliamentary committee on statutory Enterprises, COSASE. The Committee wondered how a kilometer of Road cost $9.3 million and ordered the review of the same. 
The expressway is a four-lane expressway that boasts 19 fly-overs and bridges measuring 2.77 Kilometres. It also boasts of the 1.4-kilometer Nambigirwa Bridge, the longest four-lane bridge in Uganda and East Africa. The US$497 million expressway, is thus 206 kilometres of road on a 51 kilometre stretch. Consequently, its cost is US$2.4 million per kilometer which is the standard price for such roads elsewhere.

In Kenya, the Standard Gauge Railway line from Mombasa to Nairobi faced severe criticism regarding its cost. Some politicians even suggested that US$1 billion was stolen from the project thus inflating its cost.  It emerged later that the politicians, all members of opposition party, ODM, were funded by a tenderpreneur who lost the bid to get his chosen contractors build the line on a PPP basis.
Anne Waiguru: Lost her job to scandalmongering
 
The same tenderprenuer was also behind the Eurobond saga, paying the same politicians to dispense fake reports. He was also behind the NYS scandal which alleged massive theft of public funds. However, the parliamentary Public Account Committee could not even put a finger of the amount stolen and the culprits, calling instead of the investigative agencies to investigate an Officer.
Emerging evidence suggests that the committee, headed by Opposition MPs, was working to cover-up the lies spread by their leader. The Party itself leads a corruption tag team in Kenya.

The SGR line is already complete and operational. It has lived to its expectations of cutting travel time between Nairobi and Mombasa to four hours for passenger train and 8 hours for the freight train.
However, freight truck owners, some of them, politicians, are crying for their business is at stake: One fully loaded train puts 300 trucks off-the-road while a fully loaded 20-car passenger train puts 56 buses off the road.
The lesson from our research is: the media was taken for a ride as it parroted the allegations without interrogating them. They never questioned the experts, that is, the people implementing the project and asking to see the design documents and the contract agreements.




Short of this, the media helps politicians and corrupt businessmen to sabotage projects that would otherwise benefit our countries. We help condemn our countries- and ourselves - into a state of perpetual under development in the name of fighting corruption. 

Wednesday, 3 January 2018

Why Tanzania should abandon Regional SGR


The region marked in red is waste of
Good Money
Tanzania should abandon its regional SGR ambitions for now. She should instead focus on and develop a domestic SGR.  The regional SGR is spending good money chasing after bad money.

This is why; Uganda has chosen to build her Standard Gauge Railway link through the Northern corridor to the Mombasa Port. Uganda’s departure puts the viability of the Central Corridor and the Dar-es-salaam Port as a regional transport hub, in doubt.

The feasibility study on the Dar-Es-salaam, Isaka, Kigali, Keza- Musongati ( DIKKM) Railway Project, as the Central Corridor line is called, shows that the traffic flow on the line is low and that, to make a minimum return on investment, it must ship 8.5 million tons per year.

Tanzania on her own can generate an estimated 3.1 million tons of freight per year; Rwanda, including DRC 2.3 million tons and Burundi 3.1 million tons. These numbers are estimated at what is called the conservative low growth.
Kenya has already hit the ground
 running, attracting Uganda


Higher freight traffic, says the feasibility study, is possible if the Railway line diverts part of the traffic that is shipped through the Northern Corridor.  This is why, say analysts, the Tanzanian government, attempted to woo Uganda away from the Northern corridor in favour of the Central corridor.  Uganda ships an estimated 10 million tons of cargo a year.
Now that Uganda has changed her mind, Tanzania has to re-think its investment on SGR urgently. If Rwanda, favors the Northern corridor, Tanzania will be alone in the project given the economic and Political turmoil in Burundi.
Tanzania, given the current uncertainties, is free to change its mind about where to invest the US$7.6 billion slated for investment in the Central corridor. She should abandon the extension of the line beyond Isaka to Keza and Musongati. The 413 km of Greenfield Railway will be a wasted investment. At the current rate of US$5 million per kilometer, Tanzania will waste US$ 2.075 billion dollars.
Instead, this money should be spent on the proposed Dar-es-salaam Mtwara line.  Mtwara, which is rich in Coal and Iron ore deposits, is roughly 556 Km from Dar-Es-salaam. At the current rates, this line will cost US$2.78 billion to open Mtwara‘s mines for exploitation and transport the coal inland to cement manufacturers and other users upcountry.
The DIKKM feasibility study ignored the domestic freight focusing only at exports and imports.  But the coal mines and cement manufacturers in the Mtwara region could supply enough tonnage to sustain the Railway line.
Despite spirits effort by Magufuli(R) Museveni (L)
 chose the Kenya loop
 
Further, a railway line has direct economic links with the local economies of the areas it traverses, opening them to exploitation, thus spurring unforeseen economic activity.
The Central Corridor will traverse several high potential towns to wit: Morogoro, Kilosa, Dodoma, Manyoni, Tabora, Isaka and Shinyanga. Extending the line to Mtwara will raise the number of major towns served by the line to eight from the current seven.
These towns are expected to grow rapidly as economic zones in the short run due to ease of transport.  A number of new sectors will sprout in addition to agriculture and mining. These include; tourism and related services, distribution, building and construction. This growth will spur economic activity within the cities and their hinterlands that would feed on the railway line.
Demand for transport services will also escalate and, given the state of roads in Tanzania, the bulk of this demand will be met by the railway line which is safer and faster compared to road transport. The result is: Tanzania will end up generating more internal passenger and freight traffic than anticipated. Such potential should be meticulously natured.
The greatest bottleneck in Tanzania especially, for agricultural produce and other sectors, is transport and power supply. This means that both enabling infrastructure categories must be developed simultaneously in order to spur growth.
One other potential that was down-played in the feasibility study is passenger traffic. Experience in Kenya shows that passenger traffic can generate significant revenue. The Nairobi- Mombasa section has generated great interest in passenger travel because of speed and cost and is running four trains per day only five months after launch.
In Tanzania, given its vast territory, the demand for passenger trains is higher than in Kenya. The high-speed trains could soon become a major incentive for passenger travel and generate significant revenues.
The drudgery of travel is the greatest disincentive for travel. High-speed travel in a reliable and safe mode will spur domestic tourism in Tanzania.

 The Central Corridor is the longest rail route in one country in East Africa. It also has the largest potential to spur well-distributed economic activity in the country which, in turn, will generate higher demand for its services. 

Thursday, 14 December 2017

Total SA’s foray into east Africa hits rough winds

First flare up test at Hoima

The French oil Major, Total S.A’s foray into East Africa’s oil exploration sector has run into headwinds. The foray itself brought tumult in the sector and the region. Farmed into Hoima Oil fields by Tullow Oil, Total SA soon began maneuvers to elbow out its hosts and take full control of the 1.7 billion barrel fields.
 Tullow oil was the first oil explorer to find oil in Uganda in 2006. It farmed the oil Majors Total SA and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for 33 percent stake in Hoima Oil fields in Uganda.  Meanwhile, Tullow Oil together with its Canadian partner Africa Oil had discovered oil in Kenya’s Lokichar Basin.
So Tullow planned to export its crude through the proposed Lamu Port in Kenya. For this both governments in Uganda and Kenya agreed to set up a special purposes vehicle to build an oil Pipeline through Kenya.
 But then Total, secretly contracted a US company, Gulf Interstate, to do a feasibility on the Uganda-Kenya route which they found unfeasible, recommending the Pipeline be built through Tanzania’s to the Port of Tanga.  Uganda bought the idea and re-routed her planned oil pipeline.
This angered Tullow who off-loaded 22% of its 33.3 per cent stake to Total SA in a US$900 million deal. Tullow moved to Kenya.
 It also poisoned diplomatic relations between Kenya and Tanzania that are still chill. Now Total S.A appears set for her own tumult.
First, it appears that Total, buoyed by her success in elbowing Tullow out of Hoima Fields also began to bully CNOOC out of the fields too. CNOOC is not about to be bullied to sell her stake for she represents wider Chinese interests than just oil.
 She also represents the interests of Chinese construction companies who were eyeing the deal to construct the Pipeline. So she resisted all manoeuvres by Total SA to control the business.
 Either by coincidence or at China’s behest, some skeletons began coming out of Total SA’s cupboard. It emerged that despite the seemingly cordial relations with Tanzania, there were undercurrents. President Magufuli of Tanzania developed misgivings about Total, which had disagreed with his technocrats on parts of the deal. He advised his friend President Museveni to go slow on Total.
 It also emerged that, Gulf Interstate, the firm that carried the feasibility that badmouthed the Kenya route, may not have been competent in that line after all. Museveni had based his decision to re-route the oil Pipeline south on this feasibility study.
The re-route that Cost Kenya the Pipeline
 Further, Equatorial Guinea has cautioned President Museveni to be weary of Total.  The firm had defrauded Equatorial Guinea of Euros 73 million worth of crude exports between 2010 and 2012. And E.Guinea is demanding a refund. 
Tullow, according to Uganda’s the independent Magazine, sold its stake due to frustration by the Uganda government over the Crude oil pipeline route. Tullow favored the Lamu Port, because of her interests in Kenya’s Lokichar Oilfields. The pipeline from Hoima to Lamu through Lokichar would have enabled Tullow to export the Kenyan oil on the same Pipeline.
 Now, the disagreement is said to be so intense that the partnership could collapse if not resolved, further delaying Uganda’s entry into the oil exporters club. This is why the Uganda government has been roped into the dispute. Both Total SA and CNOOC are lobbying Uganda President to get an advantage over the other but the Chinese are said to be gaining the upper hand.
In November, both sides visited the Uganda President but the Total delegation, sources say, left “unhappy”. The Chinese, led by the Ambassador in Uganda, and the CNOOC vice-President, had met the President earlier and are said to have raised concerns about Total.
To the east in Kenya, where Total SA acquired 25 percent through a buy-out of Maersk Oil from the firm’s parent company, A.P. Moller-Maersk, things do not look rosy either.  
The National Oil Corporation, the industry regulator in Kenya, plans to float shares in both NSE and LSE in 2019 in an IPO to raise US$1 billion for 33 percent stake buy-in in Lokichar Oilfields ahead of Production.
Lokichar, boasts of 750 million barrels but new wells are being discovered. The basin which extends to Ethiopia is thought to hold 23 billion barrels of the black gold.
The government’s entry into the oil sector will whittle down the stakes of the other partners. The partners in Lokichar are Tullow 50%, Africa Oil 25% and Total SA 25%. The presence of the government will whittle down Total SA’s potential influence, reducing it to a spectator. The firm had expressed its desire to lobby Kenya to allow Kenya’s crude to be exported south through the Tanga Port in Tanzania.
Such a move would have killed the US$2.1 billion Lokichar- Lamu Oil Pipeline. It would also have killed the proposed 120,000 barrels a day oil refinery in Lamu. With the entry of the Kenya government into the industry, such a dream is effectively killed.
Assuming each partner cedes 11 percent stake, then Kenyans will be the second largest stakeholder after Tullow which will control 39 percent, Kenyans 33 percent, Africa Oil 14% and Total 14 %.
Since oil price is recovering in the international market, frontier sources such as East Africa will become the ground for intense battles among the oil Majors. Total SA’s stated goal is to be the first on the ground.
However, others-including the Chinese -are also seeking to increase their stock of crude oil, and this means bare-knuckled battles. According to Uganda’s The Independent Magazine, the Chinese appear set to stay put. And the government, it says, appears lukewarm towards Total S.A.
This places the oil major between a rock and a hard place. Should it continue with its bullying ways, governments could step in to scuttle its schemes.  Uganda, sources indicate, has not entirely abandoned its plans to ship oil through Kenya nor did Tullow dump all its stake on Total’s hands.
Uganda is the cradle of Total SA’s presence in East Africa. Should it slip through its hands, even the Pipeline through Tanzania will be in jeopardy. 

It remains to be seen how Total S.A wades through the waters it muddied.

Sunday, 3 December 2017

Kenya Gearing for robust growth in 2018


Kenya is revving for faster growth in the coming year, all things remaining the same, we can report. The country, whose growth is among the fastest in the continent, is expected to register slow growth in 2017 compared to 2016.  Last year, national wealth grew by a robust 5.8 per cent but is expected to slow down to 5.0 per cent or below.
However, all fundamentals for a fast turnaround are in place: the short- rains have been adequate and well distributed, inflation has turned south and will continue to do so as food supply increases, oil prices still look low and the political climate is cooling off albeit with pockets of noise.
The short run headwinds namely; the uncertainties arising from a prolonged electioneering is well behind us, the economic tremor caused by the invalidation of the presidential vote on September 1st is also behind us. The tide is turning in favour of economic prosperity.
 Prolonged drought since the second half of 2016 coupled with poor long rains were the draw back to wealth creation this year, says the Second-Quarter GDP report published by the national Bureau of statistics
There were shortages of all agricultural products including Maize, Sugar cane, coffee and milk leading to low activity in the agro-processing sector. Shortages means that someone is not producing and therefore making money and employing others.
Completion of some mega infrastructure projects also slowed down activity in some sectors. Both slow-downs led to lay-offs which increased unemployment in the country. However, the resurgence of activity in mega- infrastructure projects including the Thwake Dam, the Lamu- Isiolo highway and the second runway at the JKIA are expected to boost cement consumption and activity in the construction sector.  
These shortage resulted in inflationary pressures that saw overall inflation rise to 8.04 in August before declining to 4.73 in November 2017.
The shilling, which was suffering the ravages of political uncertainty has appreciated to 102.95/103.10 on December 1st from Shs103.75/103.90 in November 14th when the Supreme Court upheld President Kenyatta’s re-election.  It is expected to appreciate further as political risk retreats and investors troop back to the local financial market.
The decline political risk, coupled with increased output in the agricultural sector and the 50 % reduction in electricity tariffs for the manufacturing sector, during the night, has set the stage for robust growth next year as investors dust their shelved investment plans.
There is one potential drawback though, Oil prices are turning north sending a clear signal of a raid into our pockets in the new-year. A barrel of crude has hit $64 per barrel which translates into higher pump prices.
 However, the good rains are expected to dampen the pressure as the Hydro-dams levels rise, increasing the amount of cheap-green- energy in the market. The

Experts see a 5.9-6.0 growth rate next year. They see a higher rate in 2019 other being the same.

Thursday, 23 November 2017

Back to abnormal. Raila is done!

Supreme Court: Sealed RAO's career

The Supreme Court of Kenya on Monday this week sealed Raila Odinga’s political fate. By upholding Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election on October 26th, it  paved the way for Kenya to go back to abnormal because Raila is done!

Go back to abnormal? To many Kenyans normal is going back to their normal routine. That’s true. But one “normal” will be missing- regular disruptions by Raila Odinga and his surrogates. Odingaism is Kaput!
 The old man, a very good mobilizer but a poor strategist brought this on himself.  He chose the wrong path to State House and has never learnt from his previous failures, probably because he believes his own lies. He created an impression of a national outlook in his party by surrounding himself with communities that do not have the numbers to take him to state house, unless he is running alone! That was a sure way to keep him in the opposition benches.
 Politics is about numbers and persuasion. He is very poor in both. He was a poor student at school both in Kenya and East Germany, where he took to so long to understand basic concepts. That poor scholarly aptitude is echoed in the political school where he has failed to grasp a basic truth about numbers and politics.
He failed completely to penetrate the vote-rich central Rift valley and Mount Kenya region due to his brinkmanship- he believes in bullying, intimidation, disruption and violence which put-off many Kenyans, including his late father, Jaramogi Odinga Oginga. This was noted as a major weakness by his Marxism instructors in East Germany who found him disorganized, disruptive and lawless-never kept time for instance, says an EU council intelligence. Even to date he has few friends in Kenya.
 He is unruly and does not belief in due process. This character almost brought the Supreme Court of Kenya, which invalidated Uhuru’s win in August 8th, into disrepute.  Instead of obeying the Court’s orders, by going to campaign, he resorted to disruptive tactics- making demands for personnel changes at the IEBC and a plethora of other demands unrelated to the elections.  
When his will hit a stone all, he pretended to withdraw from the election and when that failed, he called for the boycott of the elections. Despite this call and the violent blockade of voters in his Luo Nyanza, the election still went ahead and he lost by seven million votes.
Jimmi wanjigi: Investment gone to waste?
This author predicted after the nullification of Uhuru’s win in September that Raila was handed a rope to hang himself by the Supreme Court. The same court drove the final nail in his political career’s coffin On Monday. “Now he can kick as much as he pleases,” to quote Shaka the Zulu king of the 17th Century.
And now his options are limited. One way that seems open to him, is open defiance and probably getting sworn in as President. This is high treason which carries a mandatory death sentence.  There is also the international Criminal Court, which is monitoring his activities and would surely relish a date with him. Will he take that route? Only time will tell.
The entry of ICC into the picture is a pointer to his declining popularity in the West. His recent trips to the US and Britain were flops. He has painted himself into a corner.
But for the time being, he and his surrogates have no option but to rant and yell-shouting intimidating slogans whose viability is next to Zero. Only one result is possible- failure.
 The journey to Canaan is over. It’s back to the wilderness for him and his surrogates, a failure that will spawn a string of destitute people, who hanged on his coat labels.
Topping the casualty list is businessman, Jimmi Wanjigi, who invested billions of shillings funding Raila and NASA in an attempt to bring Uhuru down. Instead, he could end up going down the drain as the billions he blew up supporting Raila could turn out to be a complete waste.
 He supported NASA on the understanding that if the party wins, he shall get almost all mega infrastructure and security contracts amounting to Kshs 2.27 trillion. From these he hoped to make Ksh 400 billion in profits. This made investing tens of billions a worthy investment. Chances are he is facing another five years of financial drought which spells doom for the tenderprenuer.
The self- proclaimed “Father of political patronage” like all other party supporters are living in denial. They still brag that they shall install Raila as president. That remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain, Uhuru will ensure that Wanjigi is cut to size. He has already crippled his two major projects, the SGR and the second terminal at JKIA. There is no reason to belief any other projects will not be crippled in future- if he ever gets them that is.
With Wanjigi trimmed, the protest industry emerges as the next potential destitute. Without Wanjigi bankrolling it, It is dead. Some NGOs may try to fit in his ugly shoes, but they are also equally vulnerable. The end for street protest over every little matter is nigh, hence our abnormal future.
Raila: Made a disastrous blunder
Another destitute lot are the country parliaments that have rushed to pass the “People assembly” law. They could be disbanded and their counties placed under the national government clipping Raila’s wings further. Without MCAs to mobilize goons, he is a sitting duck.
 There is talk of sabotage, that is, all NASA MPs and Senators will resign en-mass citing dissatisfaction with the president. This is a probable move, but a disastrous one, just like the People’s assembly. It remains to be seen how many MPs would risk their salaries now to go to a new election. There is serious doubt whether more than 100 MPs would resign. And even if they did, 100 out of a 290 member house is a minority that can be filled through by-elections.
This is one idea that is appealing but impracticable. Just like the boycott idea, this will add to a string of failures in the past. These include: Okoa Kenya; the journey to Canaan; boycotting certain companies and products; labour unrest in critical sectors of the public service such as Doctors, Nurses, teachers, lecturers; boycott of elections and finally NRM. Raila was out foxed at every turn and now he appears headed for the oblivion.
He has two choices in his journey to oblivion: Either exit the stage quietly and peacefully or take the path to self-destruction- violence and defiance. Either way, the destination is oblivion! What is not clear is how soon the journey will end.




Friday, 17 November 2017

ODM leads the Corruption Tag-Team in Kenya

John Mbadi :A thief investigating himself?
 Contrary to public pronouncements, Raila Odinga’s party, ODM is in the thick of the plunder of Kenya.A Lengthy investigation by this publication has established that there is a tag-team of corruption in Kenya.
 The team comprises of wealthy businessmen, politicians, the media and some so-called activists.
This is how it works: an official frustrates a businessman’s scheme to plunder Kenya; the miffed businessman concocts some scandal targeting the official in question, he hands the scandal to a an ODM politician or a miffed one too; the politician hands it to a friendly reporter who splashes the story, other politicians and activists pick up the cue and the chorus of condemnation begins.
Since the businessmen tag along politicians in the schemes to plunder Kenya, the politician is also miffed because he also lost in the same deal.
Waiguru: Hounded out by the
 Corruption Tag- team
The team, currently starring Jimmi Wanjigi, Raila Odinga and ODM, is going through a lean season, frustrated by the Uhuruto administration and is fighting back in all fronts.
In fact, the tag-team seems deadset on regime change. The reason; another five years of Kenyatta administration will cripple them financially.  This is the last one battle for their survival.
This team has in the past spun “scandals’ that have destroyed careers and brought the Kenyatta administration into disrepute, investigation by this publication have established.  However, our investigation has established, all “scandals” were hot air.
Our review of several allegations of mega corruption in Kenya such as the (in) famous Euro Bond saga, the SGR saga in Kenya and Uganda found them to be mere malicious tiffs by corrupt businessmen, in Kenya, called “tenderprenuers.”
“Tenderprenuers” are characters who specialize in winning government mega tenders, then sale them to the real providers for a fee. They themselves never provide a thing. In some instances, they originate the projects and sale them to corrupt government officials.
A pattern emerged from our tracking of the scandals: One, they all originate with ODM officials; the same officials never take the reports to the investigative agencies; that ODM dominated parliamentary committees are the first off the blocks to investigate such scandals; that the investigative agencies always find no evidence to back the allegations; that some politicians in these committees are interested parties since they also have their fingers in the cookie jar.
It is common Knowledge that investigation by Parliamentary committees attract massive publicity but carry no weight in prosecution of the alleged scams. Their job is merely to cover-up the real intention of the scam-to demonize and get uncooperative officials removed from office.
The cases hardly ever find their way into investigative and prosecution agencies. And where they do, they are almost always thrown out. Consequently, none of the alleged cases are ever prosecuted due to lack of evidence. The alleged culprits are tried and prosecuted in the press, public meetings and street demonstrations funded by the tenderprenuers.
In all cases, the “whistle blowers” who are in most cases, the culprits, avoid investigative bodies like the plague. In one such case, CORD politicians in Kenya mobilized their members to demonstrate when it became clear that their leader, Raila Odinga, was to be arrested for failing to honor summons by an investigative agency over the Eurobond saga.
In some instances, politicians, worried that their cover could be blown, even try to direct the investigations -telling investigators what to investigate, who to investigate and where to stop.
The tales are spun to either get unwanted people out of the way or just to embarrass the government.  A case in point is the alleged NYS plunder which cost the then Minister for Devolution and planning, Anne Waiguru, her job. As it turned out, Waiguru may have stood in the way of a tenderprenuer who was eyeing a Kshs16 billion security tender at NYS among other targeted projects.
The Isaack Hassan led IEBC was destroyed in a similar manner,when it refused to axe OT Morpho for Smartmatic to supply voter identification Kits. The company is owned by Lord Mark –Mahlom Brown a friend of Raila Odinga.   Ezra Chiloba, the new CEO also rejected the Smartmatic bid and is also a target of the tag-team.
Embankments(Soil Refill) and bridges account 30% of costs
This is the same reason the same politicians are calling for the boycott of Safaricom. The firm won a Kshs 14 billion contract to install surveillance cameras in Nairobi and Mombasa. A local tenderprenuer considers security contracts in Kenya his forte. It is through such tenders that he, together with others, looted billions of shillings of tax payer money.
 By 2004, such crooks had looted a total of US$700 million (Kshs56 billion in the then exchange rates), says a diplomatic cable seen by this publication. One reputedly pocketed US$5 million (Kshs 400 million in the current exchange rate then).
In their hurry to scandalize a project, the whistle blowers overlook critical details, resulting in a half-baked stories of criminal activity. This was the case in Eurobond saga, in which an alleged Kshs100 billion was stolen. Electronic Funds transfer documents show that the money was transferred to the Central Bank of Kenya’s account at the Federal Reserve, in New York. And that the Central bank, which is the banker to the government, paid the equivalent in Shillings to the consolidated account.
The scandal was just hot hair whose purpose was to embarrass the government by miffed tenderprenuers. There is no evidence any money was ever stolen.
 Deception was common in the on the standard gauge Railway “scandal.” Both MPs and journalists ignored mundane design parameters such as design capacity and design standards. To them SGR is SGR. That is why they were quick to use Ethiopia as role model because it had completed the first electric Standard Gauge Railway in Africa from Addis Ababa to Djibouti, a distance of 755 Kilometres at a cost of $3.4 billion.
This compares adversely with the $3.2 billion that the 600 Kilometre Mombasa-Nairobi section cost. The press was awash with hogwash. Some suggesting that huge chunks of money were stolen, a figure of Kshs 100billion was bandied around. But evidence has emerged of tenderprenuers, who lost the bid to construct the Railway line as a PPP project, conceiving and funding the “scandal.”
The Mombasa Super bridge of the SGR
 A comparison of the detailed designs tells a different story. The Kenyan Railway is class one Chinese standard rail line whose gradient was 1.2 percent. That meant construction of a total of 79 bridges totaling 35 kilometres. Some of the bridges are kilometres long.
Engineers say that bridges contribute 30 per cent of total cost of building a Railway line. That means where bridges and embankments are fewer, the cost is lower. That is the case with the Ethiopian SGR which has only level -crossings and only one 150 meter- long bridge.
A report seen by this publication suggests that the Nairobi- Kisumu – Malaba section of the SGR will cost more per kilometer due to the terrain in the Rift valley. It will require bridges and tunnels to ensure that the locomotives hauling 800 meter- long double –stacked wagons or 4,000 tons maintain a steady 80 KPH throughout the journey.
One more detail, both the Tanzanian and Ethiopian lines, are upgrades of the old Railway line apart from being of an inferior quality compared to Northern corridor. The Northern Corridor SGR is a Greenfield project.



Monday, 6 November 2017

Boycott? It’s Jimmi Wanjigi’s Vendetta!


The Puppet megalomaniac
  The calls by NASA/NRM to boycott certain companies and their products is Jimmi Wanjigi’s revenge attack, we can report.  Raila Odinga is just the puppet, doing his master’s will while NASA members are pawns in game of greed for wealth and power. Raila shall only gain the droppings from their high table, warn international intelligence sources.
Jimmi has sworn to bring  Kenyatta  down because he put Jubilee in office and Jubilee betrayed him by blocking his plundering ways.  In a tweet on his twitter handle he says: “Jubilee was my brainchild, laid out the blueprint and  filled it with the occupants all in my basement. And bring it down I will! Watch my pace!”
Wanjigi, who made his wealth through shady deals during the Kibaki regime, cobbled together Jubilee Alliance from URP and TNA led by William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, respectively in 2012, ahead of that year’s election. He had hoped that they would look the other side as he plundered Kenya.
It was a miscalculation for as soon as they assumed office, they abandoned him and blocked his plundering schemes. Among the schemes was the US$9 billion Standard Gauge Railway and the US$600 million Greenfield passenger terminal at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi.
JW: Instability Kingpin
The battle it seems is, not just economic sabotage and destruction of target companies, but also a strong arm way of gaining free stake in both the target companies and also their competitors.  Destroying opponents is Raila Odinga’s stock-in-trade.
And destroying Kenya for his selfish gains is no big deal, warns the EU council for foreign relations. “He will not blink if Kenya goes over the cliff, if that is the price to be paid for a place for him in the government,” it concludes.  
He destroyed the IEBC commission led by Isaack Hassan because they stood in his way of earning Kick- backs from IEBC related businesses.  It is for the same reason that he led an onslaught against the current IEBC, Chief Executive, Ezra Chiloba.
 Safaricom, sources say is targeted because it also did not play ball with Raila’s friends, smartmatic international, which had bid to Supply IEBC with the Voter identification kits. Smartmatic international, in this bid tried to rope in Safaricom in order to strengthen its case. Safaricom turned down the offer and that is why it is a target of Raila’s ire. Smartmatic international is owned by Raila’s friend, Mark Mahlon- Brown, a British member of the House of Lords and a former UNDP boss.
The destruction Safaricom, it is hoped, will pave way for the growth of Airtel which will be arm twisted to offer them a stake. Bidco Africa is also being bullied for the same reasons. “Don’t be surprised to find Raila or Jimmi and their surrogates owning a stake in the companies in future,” said a Nairobi based business analysts.  The only companies that are being bullied for vendetta reasons are Brookside and Equity Bank, he added.  
Jimmi Wanjigi, who in his twitter page introduces himself as the Godfather of Political patronage, strong -armed Raila into signing several agreements that made him the de facto king pin in a Raila government, says a review by the British Foreign and Commonwealth affairs office.  In return JW, as they refer to him, funded his entire Presidential campaign for Kshs 10 billion.
In the agreement, NASA, the coalition of tribal kingpins that he cobbled together must win the elections and if they fail, force a grand coalition by all means. NASA lost the August 8th election. He petitioned and won the petition when the Supreme Court annulled Kenyatta’s election.
 Raila’s hope was Kenyatta would reject the Supreme Court ruling leading to an explosion of violence country wide. That never happened thus scuttling his scheme.  He did not participate in the fresh elections ordered by the Supreme Court. Instead, he engaged in a series of suicidal activities culminating in his withdrawal from the election hopping to scuttle the process. That too failed.
Mark Brown: Another puppeteer
JImmi in his tweets seems to acknowledge that Kenyatta is a strategist, citing the lack of quorum at the Supreme Court on Oct25th, which scuttled their   attempts to derail the elections slated for the next day. He also cites the ban of Kura yangu Sauti Yangu and “We the people” NGOs as a good strategy.
The current administration is the greatest stumbling block to this scheme hence the need to replace it. The plotters identified Raila Odinga as their man, nay “Kijana ya Mkono,” their puppet.
Jimmi Wanjigi, has been plotting to overthrow President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government since 2013 as it frustrated his plans to plunder Kenya.
The target resources include; oil in the Lokichar basin, the bullet factory at Eldoret, a string of Infrastructure projects and hardware supplies to the Security forces in Kenya. These conduits are expected to earn the Mandarins anything up to Kshs 3.0 trillion in five years!
A British Foreign and Commonwealth Office report notes that Wanjigi, apart from eyeing government projects, is also gunning to chase out of Kenya, Tullow oil and its partner, from Lokichar basin. The British report says that Wanjigi was plotting to bring in Asian explorers for a stake in the basin estimated to hold 23 billion barrels of Crude oil. It also suggests that he is planning to set up a militia to Keep NASA in check should they grown horns.
The Kenyatta administration is the stumbling block to all these goals hence the need to replace it. So A school of thought is emerging that Uhuru should play hardball with Raila after swearing- in.
It is not clear that Uhuru will opt for the no holds-barred approach. Instead, he could lay a trap for Raila and lead him into it. Raila and some of his officials are already on the ICC radar. Uhuru could allow, and even egg Raila into the trap.

Wanjigi, in his tweets seems to recognize this trap. How he manouevres through this trap and still get his way remains to be seen.